Harbour Navigator: Should we be concerned about rising long-term bond yields?
Article originally published 8 September 2026 by the NBR and updated on 14 September 2026. Two years ago, in September 2024, financial markets were fixated on a rapidly developing AI boom. The leading US hyperscalers were jumping over each other to announce the investment of billions of dollars in cloud capacity. Nvidia’s share price had risen 10-fold in the prior 2 years on the back of phenomenal earnings growth. Meanwhile,…
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Harbour Outlook: The Fed holds the line
Key market movements
Global equities rebounded in August with the MSCI ACWI (NZD unhedged) returning 2.0%, and the NZD-hedged flavour of the same index returning 2.3% over the month. Returns on a trailing 12-month basis remain healthy, sitting at 22.0% and 21.1% respectively.
The New Zealand market was also up on the month, with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) returning 1.7% over the month. Australi…
Not just a weather event. What does the 2026 El Niño weather event mean for NZ investment markets?
Article originally published 11 August 2026 by the NBR.
The Asia-Pacific region is currently in an El Niño weather cycle. El Niño is one of the most important climate drivers for the New Zealand economy because it alters rainfall, temperature, wind patterns and agricultural output. Historically, there have been impacts on electricity hydro generation and lake levels, inflation, and on investment returns.
The risk of lower …
Harbour Outlook: Hormuz, Hawks and Hyperscalers
Key market movements
It was a volatile month for global equities, with the semiconductor complex coming under pressure and a reversal that saw value outperforming growth. The MSCI ACWI Index returned -3.1% in NZD-unhedged terms, however a strengthening New Zealand dollar meant that NZD-hedged returns were more benign at -0.5%.
The New Zealand market held on to a small gain, with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputatio…
Defence and Investing: Where should responsible investors draw the line?
Defence was once one of responsible investing's simplest exclusions. Today, rising geopolitical tensions and growing concerns about national resilience are forcing investors to rethink old assumptions.
Not all defence exposure is the same. The key distinction increasingly being drawn by investors is between prohibited weapons and conventional defence capabilities that may support the protection of democratic institutions, c…
Harbour Navigator: A Case for Private Credit for NZ Businesses
Article originally published 07 July 2026 by the NBR
Over the past decade, private credit has evolved from a niche investment strategy into a mainstream source of funding for businesses globally. The global private credit market has reached $3.5 trillion in assets under management (AUM)*.
Source: AIMA reports & UBS/Pregin and AUM shown in US$bn
It’s worth acknowledging there has been some negative sentiment, but global g…
Harbour Outlook: From energy shock to earnings test
Key market movements
Global equities delivered another solid month in June, adding 4.4% in NZD‑unhedged terms (however ‑0.1% in NZD‑hedged terms as the New Zealand dollar weakened through the month). Market performance was supported by strength in AI‑related shares following robust results from memory‑chip manufacturers, alongside improving sentiment as tensions in the Middle East eased.
The New Zealand market extended its re…
Harbour Navigator: Private Credit - Global Concerns and the New Zealand Context
Global private credit headlines do not always reflect the structure and risk profile of the New Zealand market.
Some of the features attracting scrutiny overseas, including intense competition, fund-level leverage and concentrated sector exposures, are less prevalent locally.
Long-term outcomes will depend less on the asset class itself and more on manager discipline, portfolio construction and investor alignment.
The growt…
Harbour Navigator: Protecting real wealth - the role of inflation-indexed bonds
The trouble with investing is that you don’t know what is going to happen next. That applies over the next week, the next month and the next year. On that logic, looking out over 20 years, which is an appropriate timeframe for most investors, would seem an unfathomable and daunting prospect.
So, what can we do? Referring to history is a great starting point. We can observe at a narrow level, bouts of large market falls and…
Harbour Outlook: Inflation, oil and geopolitics shape the outlook
Key market movements
Global equities continued the rally in May adding another 3.4% in NZD-unhedged terms (and 5.1% in NZD-hedged terms as the New Zealand dollar strengthened through the month). Emerging markets outperformed through the month (+9.7%), with AI-exuberance fuelling extraordinary returns from Korea and Taiwan.
The New Zealand market staged a bit of a resurgence, with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputati…