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Harbour Outlook: Central banks easing as markets broaden

Key market movements

Global equities continued their strong run in August, returning 2.5% in unhedged NZD terms and 2.0% NZD-hedged, their fourth month in a row of gains. Equity market performance broadened, with investors rotating away from the mega-cap technology companies and into small-cap stocks.  

The New Zealand equity market posted a modest gain, with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) returnin…

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Ryan Gillanders | Posted on Sep 8, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: Bank capital proposal to support growth (and competition)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has launched a review of capital risk weights and adequacy.
The review responds to concerns that the 2019 capital framework was seen in many quarters as overly conservative, potentially constraining credit supply and competition. The new framework aims to balance financial stability with efficiency and competitiveness, aligning New Zealand with peer jurisdictions rather than targeting a “…

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Andrew Bascand | Posted on Aug 26, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: REIT all about it – two reasons to invest in listed property

Stronger earnings and a helpful income boost relative to cash rates could help New Zealand (NZ) listed property securities – known as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) – deliver better returns.
New Zealand REIT returns have improved over the last year, and we believe that earnings and lower interest rates may continue to provide future support for the New Zealand REIT asset class returns.

Earnings growth: A turning point

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Shane Solly | Posted on Aug 25, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: Open Your Wallets – Biotech Conference Highlights Capital Intensity

The biotech sector, both private and public, has a plethora of new drugs and treatments in the pipeline courtesy of large capital injections 5–7 years ago.
However, there needs to be another capital infusion to bring these opportunities to market. The key question is who will fund these opportunities and who will capture the anticipated returns.

We recently attended an Australasian biotech conference that featured over forty …

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Kevin Bennett | Posted on Aug 22, 2025
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Harbour Outlook: Balancing caution with conviction

Key market movements

Global equities extended their rally in July, returning 4.2% in unhedged NZD terms and 2.2% NZD-hedged, supported by continued momentum in technology shares and growing investor confidence. The MSCI All Country World Index posted its third consecutive monthly gain, taking the 3-month return to 12.6% in unhedged NZD terms.

The New Zealand equity market continued to climb, with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (…

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Lewis Fowler | Posted on Aug 8, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: Technology, competition and risk are reshaping Australian banking

Competitive pressures in both business and consumer banking are driving operational, credit, and pricing shifts. Mortgage broker aggregation continues to be a source of pricing competition.

Technology and AI are central to banks’ transformation agendas, but progress varies widely.

Private credit and non-banks are reshaping the commercial lending market, possibly prompting some banks to re-evaluate risk appetite for business …

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Andrew Bascand | Posted on Jul 29, 2025
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Back in vogue: lower tranches of securitised debt

Market pricing on lower tranches of credit has tightened meaningfully
In some cases, collateral (investor protection) has at the same time fallen
Harbour continues to favour stronger rated credit exposures with, in our view, better future risk-return characteristics

Black-listed after the GFC, investor demand for securitised (asset-backed) debt has recently increased significantly, driving notable changes in pricing, and, in …

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Simon Pannett | Posted on Jul 9, 2025
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Harbour Outlook: Positive momentum amid easing tensions

Key market movements 

Global equities continued their momentum from the previous month, posting a solid return of 2.8% in unhedged NZD terms, and 3.8% for NZD-hedged investors. Information technology and communication services once again led performance for the month, while the consumer sectors lagged. 

Locally, the New Zealand equity market performed well with the S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index (including imputation credits) delive…

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Ryan Gillanders | Posted on Jul 8, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: The business recovery waits… again

The big surprise from today’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) was that firms reported a further reduction in their ability to lift prices, despite higher costs - likely appeasing the RBNZ’s concern of higher near-term inflation.

The underlying driver is a better appreciated dynamic – weak demand and large amounts of spare capacity, as flagged by the PMIs dropping in to contractionary territory. 

While there is ho…

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Hamish Pepper | Posted on Jul 1, 2025
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Harbour Navigator: Insights from the ground in the US

Our recent US trip offered valuable perspectives on how the AI boom is reshaping investment approaches, amid ongoing uncertainty around trade and tariffs. 

Interviews with US managers

Watch the interview with David Siino, TD Epoch:

Watch the interview with Scott Berg, T. Rowe Price:

How top global managers are positioning for the AI era
At the end of 2022, ChatGPT was made available to the public. This was a watershed mome…

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Ryan Gillanders and Louis Nel | Posted on Jun 24, 2025