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Trade, tech and funding tensions

Key developments

Globally, equity markets were weak over March, with most overseas markets down between 2-3% over the month.

After experiencing worries about rising inflation and the removal of monetary stimulus in January and February, in March equity investors were rattled by the Trump-led US government’s aggressive approach to trade negotiations and potential increased regulation of the technology sector. In addition, wh...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Apr 10, 2018
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Banking sector under the spotlight

An Australian Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services industry has started to hear evidence. The so-called Hayne interim report into banking misconduct won’t be issued until 30 September though, unlike previous reports into the banking system, this inquiry is in the full public glare and, with more than 3,000 submissions, we can expect Justice Hayne to highlight further evidence o...

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Andrew Bascand | Posted on Apr 6, 2018
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How active management can provide a solution to technological disruption

The impact of technology is one of the most exciting aspects of being a professional investor. Technology can enable a business to significantly enhance its service offering, improving customer service and hopefully making an increased profit along the way – a win-win.

Disruptive technology, however, is when technology, or the convergence of multiple technologies, is sufficiently powerful enough to disrupt existing companies ...

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Oyvinn Rimer | Posted on Mar 29, 2018
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A New Reserve Bank Governor and Policy Targets Agreement

Adrian Orr started yesterday as the new Governor of the RBNZ, and earlier this week, signed a Policy Targets Agreement (PTA) with the Minister of Finance, Grant Robertson. As widely expected, the announcement included many of the outcomes of Phase 1 of the Government’s RBNZ Review; reaffirming the RBNZ’s position as a flexible inflation targetter; adding a dual mandate of “supporting maximum sustainable employment”; and, shift...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Mar 28, 2018
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Trade Wars...Or Negotiations?

While many of the details of the US Government’s proposed trade tariffs directed at China (aimed at reducing the US’s trade deficit with China) and China’s reciprocal tariffs, are yet to be made public, the immediate response is to increase uncertainty for investment markets.

Investment markets have initially interpreted a break out of a trade war as being negative for growth and as being inflationary.

In Harbour’s view, the...

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Shane Solly | Posted on Mar 26, 2018
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Quantitative or qualitative equity research?

At Harbour, we believe it is best to use a mixture of quantitative and qualitative equity research to make investment decisions. Quantitative research is used as a filter to break down the investment universe, pick potential outperformers and underperformers, and support analyst and portfolio manager views with tangible numbers. Our qualitative research looks at a firm’s business model, competitive advantage, corporate governa...

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Susanna Lee | Posted on Mar 16, 2018
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Rising Volatility

The Harbour Outlook summarises recent market developments, what we are monitoring closely, and our key views on the outlook for fixed interest, credit and equity markets. 

Key developments Following on from the same themes in January, markets continued to see strong global economic growth in February, but worried about the top risk on our list for 2018 – namely inflation risk and ultimately concerns about whether monetary sti...

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Harbour Team | Posted on Mar 9, 2018
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Harbour Equity Update: a2 Milk, Fletcher Building and CBL

This report will discuss three specific stocks (a2 Milk, Fletcher Building and CBL), as investor interest in these stocks has been particularly high recently.

February is often a busy time for investment announcements, and this year has carried a number of surprises.

In the month of February, provisional return data indicates Harbour’s active NZ and Australasian equity funds and mandates, out-performed the market benchmark ...

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| Posted on Mar 1, 2018
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New Year, similar themes

This New Year brings with it a slew of market outlook articles and fresh investment strategies. In adorning the wall with a new Gregorian calendar in 2018, we see only an evolution of current themes

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Harbour Team | Posted on Jan 15, 2018
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Goldilocks: Not too hot, not too cold

After strong year for returns from Australasian equity markets, investors are asking: what does 2018 offer? Are the ‘goldilocks’ conditions of solid economic growth, low inflation and easy monetary policy settings likely to continue to support equity market returns?

While we believe the near-term outlook for local equity returns remains positive, two scenarios may challenge these goldilocks ‘not too hot, not too cold’ conditi...

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Shane Solly | Posted on Dec 29, 2017