Harbour Outlook: More bright spots emerge
Global equity markets continued to strengthen in April with the MSCI World index (in local currency) returning 3.8%. Markets were buoyed by the trifecta of a strong US earnings season, signs that Chinese stimulus have had a positive economic impact and, perhaps not unrelated, eurozone growth rates coming in above expectations...
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Harbour's Submission to the RBNZ on the Proposal for Changing Capital Adequacy
Submission to the RBNZ on the Proposal for Changing Capital Adequacy for New Zealand BanksHarbour[1] has written two short research papers on the RBNZ’s proposal to lift capital held in New Zealand by banks (see here and here). These reports highlighted that higher lending rates, lower deposit rates and potentially lower risk-weighted asset growth could be expected outcomes that might be associated with lower investment and GD...
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Harbour Macro Research Day
In recent years, Harbour’s internal six-monthly Macro Research Day has been an important part of our research calendar. It provides an opportunity to undertake a thorough review of the medium-term outlook for the macroeconomy and its implications for fixed interest, equity and multi-asset portfolios.
Our Macro Research Day last week commenced with presentations by economists from two of New Zealand’s largest banks discussing key drivers of the New Zealand economy. This included business confidence and the potential impact of the Reserve Bank capital requirements which has recently been one focus of our research agenda.
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Harbour Outlook: Records broken
Global equity markets continued to strengthen in March with the MSCI World index (in local currency) returning 1.6%, bringing the return for the quarter to 12.6%. Markets were buoyed by a dovish statement from the Fed, whose “patient” approach is unlikely to see any rate rises for some time. A “great” trade deal has been touted between the US and China, which has breathed further life into investment markets...
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Bond yields hit record lows; but a rate cut is not a done deal
New Zealand government stock yields fell to record low levels across all maturities last week, as the Reserve Bank acknowledged the weaker global economic outlook and the ensuing risks to the domestic economy. We think:
The economy has slowed but is still growing.
Bond yields appear to be pricing in a recession, which seems unlikely.
Rate cuts in New Zealand are not a done deal.
The decline in yields has been dramatic this ye...
Capital Gains Tax: Unanswered questions for managed funds and KiwiSaver
Key pointsWe don’t know yet which measures suggested by the Tax Working Group will be adopted by the Government. There is still a lot of water to go under the bridge.
The proposed capital gains tax makes investing in New Zealand and Australian share markets less attractive, yet there is no proposed change to the tax regime for other share markets.
While managed funds like KiwiSaver will be required to calculate their tax bill ...
Slowing but still growing
Key points
- Share markets continued their new year rally, aided by positive noises from trade negotiations and further dovish rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed)
- Economic data released during the month continue to portray lower economic activity, especially in Europe and China, though China has looked to combat this through a range of stimulatory measures
- Domestically, the economic outlook is continuing to soften, though at this point, the transition appears to be from strong to moderate growth, with risks to the downside
Banks: Increased capital requirements to change the landscape
A material lift in bank capital is on the cards.
If implemented it is likely to result in a combination of higher lending rates, lower deposit rates and potentially lower returns on equity.
The landscape of lending markets is also likely to change, with Australian banks becoming more discerning about the volume of lending to low return sectors and we may see the emergence of non-bank lenders.
The proposal by the Reserve Bank o...
Responsible investing extends beyond a green label
Contact Energy has announced its intentions to raise capital via a “green bond”.
A green bond is a debt security that has been verified to be backing assets, or projects, that have positive environmental or climate change benefits.
Green bonds can bring societal benefits by facilitating funding for projects with positive environmental impacts. Just as credit ratings indicate the likelihood of a bond defaulting, the green ...
Three things the Equity Risk Premium is telling us about investment markets
One of the key decisions that investors must make is how much to respectively allocate to equities and bonds. This decision is made in the knowledge that over time equities have generated superior investment returns. Compensation for the additional volatility, the additional return equities earn over bonds is known as the Equity Risk Premium (ERP). The ERP, while persistent over the long term, varies over the short to medium term, with the direction of the variance having broad implications for investment portfolios.
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